Illinois Wesleyan Poll Shows Blagojevich Lead Shrinking

Oct. 23, 2002

BLOOMINGTON, Ill. —Republican Jim Ryan has cut into Democrat Rod Blagojevich’s lead in the Illinois gubernatorial race, according to a statewide poll conducted by the Survey Research Center of Illinois Wesleyan University’s political science department.

The Illinois Wesleyan survey of 497 registered voters from all regions of the state shows Blagojevich holding a 46 percent to 40 percent lead over Ryan, with 14 percent either undecided or selecting a third candidate. The poll was conducted from October 20 to October 22.

"I believe that this reflects a shift from the last debate," said Tari Renner, professor of political science and chair of the department at Illinois Wesleyan. "The main change is that the Republicans have come home. It was likely that Ryan would eventually consolidate his base, but it was a matter of when that would happen. Our poll indicates that it has begun to happen."

The Illinois Wesleyan poll showed little change in the other statewide races:

• In the race of the U.S. Senate, incumbent Sen. Dick Durbin leads Republican challenger Jim Durkin by 51 percent to 33 percent with 16 percent undecided or other;
• In the attorney general race, Democrat Lisa Madigan has a two-point lead (42 percent to 40 percent) over Republican Joe Birkett with 18 percent undecided or other;
• Republican incumbent Judy Baar Topinka has a 50 percent to 28 percent lead over Democratic challenger Tom Dart in the race for treasurer with 22 percent undecided or other.

According to Renner, the biggest shift in the gubernatorial race has come from voters outside of Chicago. The Illinois Wesleyan survey found Blagojevich leading Ryan 55 percent to 30 percent in Cook County but trailing in the "collar counties" by 51 percent to 36 percent and in downstate counties by 44 percent to 42 percent.

The Illinois Wesleyan survey used a sample stratified by county and has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.5 percent.

Complete results of poll.

Results of issues questions.